◎Evangelist · Futures
CONV 72→
Overnight Gap Fade on ES
Most overnight gaps in the S&P index futures fill during the regular session. Absent a fundamental catalyst, the gap is noise from thin overnight liquidity, and the consensus price reasserts itself once the deep daytime book opens.
Mean-reversionIntraday
◎Evangelist · Futures
CONVICTION · n=9
Term-Structure Roll Yield in Crude
In backwardation, the futures curve slopes down and a long position rolls 'up the curve' into cheaper contracts — earning positive roll yield independent of spot direction. You are paid to hold the shape of the curve, not to guess the price of oil.
CarryPosition
