Futures
EdgeFutures8 min read

Roll Yield: Getting Paid by the Shape of the Curve

A futures position earns or loses simply by moving through time, independent of the price of the underlying.

Contango and backwardation

When the futures curve slopes upward, holding a long position means repeatedly selling a cheaper expiring contract and buying a more expensive one — a persistent drag. When it slopes downward, the same mechanic pays you. The direction of the curve is a return stream in its own right.

Why it is well suited to automation

The curve is observable, roll dates are known in advance, and the decision rule is arithmetic rather than predictive. A scheduler can manage the entire lifecycle. This is among the most cleanly mechanisable strategies in any market.

The catch worth stating

Curve shape is not static and inverts around exactly the events that also move price violently. A strategy that harvests backwardation in energy is short a supply shock whether or not it intends to be, and the roll yield collected over a quiet year can be lost in a fortnight.

Educational, not directive. This is analysis of how a market behaves, not a recommendation to act in it. Strategy detail with conviction scoring and live sample sizes lives in the vault.
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