Futures
AutomationFutures10 min read

Trend Following: The Most Automated Strategy, and Its Real Track Record

Managed futures is the oldest systematic strategy at scale. Its long-run record is instructive in both directions.

Why it automates so completely

The rules are simple, the data requirements are modest, and the strategy is deliberately indifferent to what it trades. Entire firms have run this profitably for decades with minimal discretionary input — it is the strongest existence proof that automated trading works.

What the record actually shows

Long flat or losing periods lasting years, punctuated by very large gains during sustained dislocations. The strategy's positive expectancy is real and its path is brutal. Most participants abandon it during the flat years, which is a behavioural cost rather than a strategy cost.

Diversification is the mechanism

Trend following at scale works because it runs across dozens of uncorrelated markets, not because any single market trends reliably. A version running three correlated instruments is not the same strategy and should not be expected to behave like it.

What that means for effort

The ongoing effort is genuinely low — this is the least demanding strategy here to operate. The demanding part is capital and patience, neither of which automation supplies.

Educational, not directive. This is analysis of how a market behaves, not a recommendation to act in it. Strategy detail with conviction scoring and live sample sizes lives in the vault.
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